Thursday, July 16, 2015

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 281,000

by Bill McBride on 7/16/2015 08:41:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending July 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 281,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 297,000 to 296,000. The 4-week moving average was 282,500, an increase of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 279,500 to 279,250.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.
The previous week was revised down by 1,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 282,500.

This was close to the consensus forecast of 282,000, and the low level of the 4-week average suggests few layoffs.