Monday, July 27, 2015

Vehicle Sales Forecasts for July: Over 17 Million Annual Rate Again, Best July in a Decade

by Bill McBride on 7/27/2015 04:51:00 PM

The automakers will report July vehicle sales on Monday, August 3rd. Sales in June were at 17.1 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in July will be over 17 million SAAR again.

Note:  There were 26 selling days in July, the same as in July 2014.  Here are a few forecasts:

From J.D. Power: New-Vehicle Retail Sales SAAR in July to Hit 14 Million, Highest Level for the Month in a Decade

The forecast for new-vehicle retail sales in July 2015 is 1,260,200 units, a 2.5 percent increase compared with July 2014 and the highest retail sales volume for the month since July 2006, when sales hit 1,294,085. Retail transactions are the most accurate measure of consumer demand for new vehicles. [Total forecast 17.2 million SAAR]
emphasis added
From Kelley Blue Book: New-Car Sales To Increase Nearly 3 Percent In July 2015, According To Kelley Blue Book
New-vehicle sales are expected to increase 2.6 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.47 million units in July 2015, resulting in an estimated 17.1 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com ...
...
"As the industry settles into the summer selling season, new-car sales are expected to remain consistent with last month's numbers, representing modest and slowing growth versus last year," said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book. "Sales in the first half of the year totaled 8.5 million units, a year-over-year improvement of 4.4 percent and the highest first-half volume since 2005. Total sales in 2015 are projected to hit 17.1 million units overall, a 3.6 percent year-over-year increase and the highest industry total since 2001."
From WardsAuto: 17 Million SAAR Streak Should Continue in July
If the projected 17.3 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate is reached, it will mark the first time since 2000 that the monthly LV SAAR has exceeded 17 million units in three consecutive months, and would represent the highest July SAAR since 2005.
...
At forecast levels, year-to-date sales through July would rise to 9.97 million units, up 4.4% over the first seven months of 2014.
Another strong month for auto sales.