Monday, July 13, 2015

Tuesday: Retail Sales

by Bill McBride on 7/13/2015 05:56:00 PM

The verdict is almost unanimous. The Greek deal is bad for Greece, bad for Germany and bad for Europe. Everyone loses.

It appears the negotiations became personal - and destructive.  Europe was Schäuble'd.

From the WSJ: Third Time’s the Charm? Little Optimism Over New Greece Bailout

The plan repeats the central features of the previous bailouts in 2010 and 2012. In return for loans, Greece’s creditors—other eurozone governments and the International Monetary Fund—want to see stringent fiscal retrenchment as well as market-oriented overhauls of Greece’s economy.
...
Although heavy austerity greatly reduced Greece’s budget deficit, the economic collapse meant that its ratio of debt to gross domestic product—an indicator of solvency—rose even higher. ...
Critics including many economists and some policy makers have leveled a string of criticisms at Greece’s earlier bailouts. Among the most common charges: The scale and pace of fiscal austerity proved to be an overdose that Greece’s sclerotic economy and unstable political system couldn’t cope with. Forecasts for growth, tax revenues and privatization revenues were overly optimistic.
The definition of insanity: "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." (attributed to Einstein).

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for June will be released. The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.3% in June, and to increase 0.6% ex-autos.

• At 9:00 AM, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June.

• At 10:00 AM, Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for June. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in inventories.