Friday, July 24, 2015

New Home Sales decreased to 482,000 Annual Rate in June

by Bill McBride on 7/24/2015 10:16:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 482 thousand.

The previous three months were revised down by a total of 49 thousand (SA).

"Sales of new single-family houses in June 2015 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 482,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 6.8 percent below the revised May rate of 517,000, but is 18.1 percent above the June 2014 estimate of 408,000."
New Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Even with the increase in sales since the bottom, new home sales are still close to the bottoms for previous recessions.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

New Home Sales, Months of SupplyThe months of supply increased in June to 5.4 months.

The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.

This is now in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).
"The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 215,000. This represents a supply of 5.4 months at the current sales rate."
New Home Sales, InventoryOn inventory, according to the Census Bureau:
"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."
Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale is still low, and the combined total of completed and under construction is also low.

New Home Sales, NSAThe last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In June 2015 (red column), 45 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year 38 thousand homes were sold in June.  This is the highest for June since 2008.

The all time high for June was 115 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for June was 28 thousand in both 2010 and 2011.

This was well below expectations of 550,000 sales in June, however new home sales are still on pace for solid growth in 2015.  I'll have more later today.