Saturday, July 04, 2015

Greece Sunday: δίλημμα

by Bill McBride on 7/04/2015 07:09:00 PM

δίλημμα: Dilemma. There is no good choice on Sunday.

Poor fiscal policies led to the need for a bailout. And the poorly designed bailout program has crushed the Greek economy. Now the creditors want more of the same, expecting a different result;  so voting "Yes" seems like the definition of insanity. But a "No" vote will mean complete chaos.

From the WSJ: On Bailout Referendum’s Eve, Greeks Are Deeply Divided on Which Course to Take

Polls have the two sides evenly balanced. There are no public data that break down the demographics and the inclinations of “yes” and “no,” but conversations around this city depict a populace that is split in two: Haves and have-nots, young and old, those bitten by austerity and those less exposed, those with money in the closed banks and those without.
From Reuters: Greece's 'yes' voters eye razor thin margin ahead of crucial referendum
The opinion poll by the respected ALCO institute, published in the Ethnos newspaper on Friday, put the "Yes" camp on 44.8 percent against 43.4 percent for the No" vote. But the lead was within the pollster's 3.1 percentage point margin of error, with 11.8 percent saying they are still undecided.
From Bloomberg: D-Day for Greek Banks Looms Following Austerity Referendum
Without a fresh injection from the European Central Bank -- or a reduced ceiling on withdrawals -- ATMs will start running dry within hours of the vote, according to Louka Katseli, chairwoman of the National Bank of Greece.

“Liquidity is adequate through the end of the bank holiday” that’s due to end Monday night, Katseli told reporters Friday as she left meetings at the Finance Ministry. Asked whether developments depend on the ECB, Katseli said “yes.”
Grim.