Thursday, July 16, 2015

Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey decreased to 5.7 in July

by Bill McBride on 7/16/2015 12:14:00 PM

From the Philly Fed: July Manufacturing Survey

Manufacturing activity in the region increased modestly in July, according to firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey.
...
The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from 15.2 in June to 5.7 this month. ...

Firms’ responses suggest steady employment in July. The percentage of firms reporting an increase in employees in July was equal to the percentage reporting a decrease (12 percent). The current employment index fell for the third consecutive month, from a reading of 3.8 in June to -0.4.
emphasis added
This was below the consensus forecast of a reading of 11.5 for July.

ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The yellow line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through July. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through June.

The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys decreased in July, and this suggests a reading similar to June for the ISM survey.