Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Duy on FOMC: "Somewhat more hawkish as the Fed gears up to hike rates later this year"

by Bill McBride on 7/29/2015 03:41:00 PM

From Tim Duy: FOMC Recap

The July FOMC meeting yielded the widely expected outcome of no policy change. Very little change in the statement either - pulling out any useful information is about as easy as reading tea leaves or chicken bones. But that won't stop me from trying! On net, I would count it was somewhat more hawkish as the Fed gears up to hike rates later this year. By no means, however, did the statement make any definitive signal about September. The Fed continues to hold true to its promise to make the next move about the data. The era of handholding fades further into memory.
...
Bottom Line: All else equal, the next two labor reports will factor strongly into the Fed's decision in September. A continuation of recent labor trends is likely sufficient to induce them to pull the trigger. Further signs of stronger wage growth would make a September move a certainty.
emphasis added
There is much more in Professor Duy's piece. A rate hike in September is possible. It depends on the data.