Wednesday, June 10, 2015

The Shrinking Deficit

by Bill McBride on 6/10/2015 02:36:00 PM

From the WSJ: U.S. Annual Budget Deficit Falls Near Seven-Year Low

Over the past 12 months, the budget deficit has narrowed to $412 billion, down from $460 billion in April and $491 billion a year earlier. That marks the lowest 12-month deficit since August 2008.
The brighter budget outlook means the deficit could fall below projections made by analysts just a few months ago. The Congressional Budget Office forecast in March that the federal deficit would rise to $486 billion this year, from $485 billion last year.

Meanwhile, Congress has yet to raise the federal debt limit. The Treasury has been using emergency measures since mid-March to avoid breaching the ceiling.

The Treasury hasn’t yet said how long it might be able to do that, but the CBO estimated in March that those measures should last until October or November.
The most recent CBO projection was for the fiscal 2015 budget deficit to be 2.7% of GDP. Right now it looks like fiscal 2015 will be closer to 2.4% (a significant change).