Sunday, June 07, 2015

Sunday Night Futures

by Bill McBride on 6/07/2015 09:25:00 PM

From Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: New Housing Headwind Looms as Fewer Renters Can Afford to Own

Demographics tell the story. Urban Institute researchers predict that more than 3 in 4 new households this decade, and 7 of 8 in the next, will be formed by minorities. These new households—nearly half of which will be Hispanic—have lower incomes, less wealth and lower homeownership rates than the U.S. average.

The upshot is that fewer than half of new households formed this decade and next will own homes. By contrast, almost three-quarters of new households in the 1990s became homeowners. The downtrend would push homeownership below 62% in 2020, and it would hold the rate near 61% in 2030, below the lowest level since records began in 1965.
Economists at Goldman Sachs say demographics could ultimately be a tailwind. They noted in an April report that even though Hispanics, for example, have lower homeownership rates than non-Hispanic whites, those rates have been rising for the past four decades. They see the homeownership rate stabilizing next year after it falls to 63.5%.
My sense is that the homeownership rate is near a bottom.

• At 10:00 AM ET, The Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI).

Schedule for Week of June 7, 2015

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are down 2 and DOW futures are down 15 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $58.67 per barrel and Brent at $62.90 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $103, and Brent was at $109 - so prices are down 40%+ year-over-year.

Below is a graph from for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.76 per gallon (down about $0.90 per gallon from a year ago).

If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by