Thursday, June 18, 2015

Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey increased to 15.2 in June

by Bill McBride on 6/18/2015 10:05:00 AM

From the Philly Fed: June Manufacturing Survey

Manufacturing conditions in the region improved in June, according to firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. Indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments remained positive and increased over their readings in May. Employment and average work hours increased, on balance, at the reporting firms. Firms reported higher prices for raw materials and other inputs in June compared with reported price decreases in recent months. The survey’s indicators of future activity suggest that firms expect continuing growth in the manufacturing sector over the next six months.
...
The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from 6.7 in May to 15.2 this month. This is the highest reading for the index since December ...



Firms’ responses suggest modest expansion in employment in June. The percentage of firms reporting an increase in employees in June (22 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting a decrease (18 percent). The current employment index, however, fell nearly 3 points, to 3.8. Firms reported an overall modest increase in the workweek compared with a decrease last month: The workweek index increased from -5.6 to 4.7.
emphasis added
This was above the consensus forecast of a reading of 8.0 for June.

ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The yellow line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through June. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through May.

The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys increased in June, and this suggests a reading similar to May for the ISM survey.