Monday, June 15, 2015

NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 59 in June

by Bill McBride on 6/15/2015 10:06:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 59 in June, up from 54 in May. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Hits Yearly High in June

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes in June rose five points to a level of 59 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is the highest reading since September 2014.
...
“The HMI indices measuring current and future sales expectations are at their highest levels since the last quarter of 2005, indicating a growing optimism among builders that housing will continue to strengthen in the months ahead,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “At the same time, builders remain sensitive to consumers’ ability to buy a new home.”
...
All three HMI components posted healthy gains in June. The component gauging current sales conditions jumped seven points to 65, the index charting sales expectations in the next six months increased six points to 69, and the component measuring buyer traffic rose five points to 44.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the South and Northeast each rose three points to 60 and 44, respectively. The West posted a two-point gain to 57 while the Midwest dropped by one point to 54.
emphasis added
HMI and Starts Correlation Click on graph for larger image.

This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was above the consensus forecast of 56.