Sunday, June 14, 2015

Monday: Industrial Production, Empire State Mfg Survey, Homebuilder Survey

by Bill McBride on 6/14/2015 08:00:00 PM

From Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Fed Hones Tricky Message as It Nears Boosting Rates

While investors have been hyper-focused on the timing of the Fed’s first rate increase since 2006—many are now looking to September and not this week’s Fed meeting—Fed officials have been trying to hone a tricky post-liftoff message about where rates are going in the longer-run.

Fed officials are haunted by many events of the past two decades. ... Eager to avoid similar jolts, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, in her past two major addresses, emphasized she expects rate increases to be slow and gradual once they start.

• At 8:30 AM ET, the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of 5.9, up from 3.1 last month (above zero is expansion).

• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for May. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 78.4%.
• At 10:00 AM, the June NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 56, up from 54 last month. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

Schedule for Week of June 14, 2015

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $59.77 per barrel and Brent at $63.32 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $107, and Brent was at $113 - so prices are down 40%+ year-over-year.

Below is a graph from for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.81 per gallon (down almost $0.90 per gallon from a year ago).

If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by