Friday, June 26, 2015

June NFP: Merrill and Nomura Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 6/26/2015 05:56:00 PM

The June employment report will be released on Thursday, July 2nd. Here are a couple of forecasts:

From Nomura:

[W]e forecast a 230k increase in private payrolls, with a 5k increase in government jobs, implying that total nonfarm payrolls will gain 235k. We forecast that manufacturing employment increased by 5k in June. We forecast that average hourly earnings for private employees rose by 0.17% m-o-m in June, a slower pace than trend due to a calendar quirk. Last, we expect the household survey to show that the unemployment rate ticked down to 5.4% from 5.5%, previously.
From Merrill:
We look for job growth of 220,000, a slowdown from the 280,000 pace in May but consistent with the recent trend. As a result, the unemployment rate will likely lower to 5.4% from 5.5%. With the continued tightening in the labor market, we think average hourly earnings (AHE) will increase a “strong” 0.2%, allowing the yoy rate to hold at 2.3%.