Thursday, June 18, 2015

CPI increased 0.4% in May, Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 267,000

by Bill McBride on 6/18/2015 08:36:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index was unchanged before seasonal adjustment.



The gasoline index increased sharply in May, rising 10.4 percent and accounting for most of the seasonally adjusted all items increase. ...

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in May, its smallest increase since December.
emphasis added
I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI. This was below the consensus forecast of a 0.5% increase for CPI, and below the forecast of a 0.2% increase in core CPI.

The DOL reported:
In the week ending June 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 267,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 279,000. The 4-week moving average was 276,750, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 278,750.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.
The previous week was unrevised.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 276,750.

This was below the consensus forecast of 275,000, and the low level of the 4-week average suggests few layoffs.