Friday, June 05, 2015

CBO: Fiscal 2015 Federal Deficit through May about 10% below Last Year

by Bill McBride on 6/05/2015 09:09:00 PM

More good news ... the budget deficit in fiscal 2015 will probably be lower than the recent CBO March forecast.

From the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) today: Monthly Budget Review for May 2015

The federal government ran a budget deficit of $368 billion for the first eight months of fiscal year 2015, CBO estimates. That deficit was $68 billion smaller than the one recorded during the same period last year. Revenues and outlays were both higher than the amounts recorded during the same period in fiscal year 2014—by 9 percent and 4 percent, respectively. If not for shifts in the timing of certain payments (which otherwise would have fallen on a weekend), the deficit for the eight-month period would have been $33 billion less this year than it was in fiscal year 2014. ...
And for May 2015:
The federal government recorded a deficit of $85 billion in May 2015, CBO estimates—$45 billion less than the deficit in May 2014. If not for the effects of timing shifts that occurred in May 2014, the deficit in May 2015 would have been $9 billion (or 10 percent) smaller than it was in the same month last year.
emphasis added
The consensus was the deficit for May would be around $97 billion, and it appears the deficit for fiscal 2015 will be smaller than the CBO currently expects (less than 2.7% of GDP).