Thursday, May 28, 2015

Vehicle Sales Forecasts for May: Over 17 Million Annual Rate

by Bill McBride on 5/28/2015 03:04:00 PM

The automakers will report May vehicle sales on Tuesday, June 2nd. Sales in April were at 16.5 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales will be strong in May too.

Note:  There were 26 selling days in May, one less than in May 2014.  Here are a few forecasts:

From Edmunds.com: Nearly 1.6 Million New Cars Sold in May Push Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) to Impressive 17.4 Million, says Edmunds.com

Edmunds.com ... forecasts that 1,591,221 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in May for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 17.4 million.
From J.D. Power: New-Vehicle Retail Sales SAAR in May to Hit 14.1M Units, Highest Level So Far in 2015
Total light-vehicle sales in May 2015 are projected to reach 1,591,100, a 3 percent increase on a selling day adjusted basis compared with May 2014. [Total forecast 17.3 million SAAR]
From Kelley Blue Book: New-Car Sales to Reach 17.3 Million SAAR in May 2015, According to Kelley Blue Book
New-vehicle sales are expected to decline 1 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.59 million units in May 2015, resulting in an estimated 17.3 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book ...
...
"May sales will reach the highest total year-to-date, and could remain the highest until December of this year," said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book. "While we expect an overall decline in volume versus last year, the difference is the result of one fewer sales day from May 2014, and total SAAR will reflect year-over-year improvement."
Another strong month for auto sales.  Good times!