by Bill McBride on 5/11/2015 09:27:00 PM
Monday, May 11, 2015
A couple of posts on consumers ...
From Professor Hamilton at Econbrowser: Energy prices and consumer spending
Whatever the explanation, the facts seem to be that, unlike what we usually observed historically, consumers have been using much of the gains from lower energy prices to bolster their saving rather than using it to increase spending on other goods and services.And from Dr. Altig at Macroblog: All Eyes on the Consumer
... the "fundamentals" suggest the four-month annualized growth of consumer spending should have been in excess of 4 percent, as opposed to the approximately 1.5 percent we actually saw. That is a story we don't expect to persist, and our current view of the year is that first-quarter consumer spending results are not indicative of future performance.My sense is the increase in consumer spending will be larger in Q2.
Consumers are, of course, a forward-looking bunch, and it is possible the recent weak spending reflects a looming reality not captured by the simple model described above. But our forecast for now is that consumers will move to the fundamentals, and not vice versa.
• At 9:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April.
• At 10:00 AM, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for March from the BLS. Jobs openings increased in February to 5.133 million from 4.965 million in January. This was the highest level for job openings since January 2001. The number of job openings (yellow) were up 23% year-over-year, and Quits were up 10% year-over-year.
• At 11:00 AM, the The New York Fed will release their Q1 2015 Household Debt and Credit Report
Posted by Bill McBride on 5/11/2015 09:27:00 PM