Sunday, May 10, 2015

Sunday Night Futures

by Bill McBride on 5/10/2015 08:28:00 PM

On Greece from the NY Times: I.M.F. and Central Bank Loom Large Over Greece’s Debt Talks

Greece is expected to repay 750 million euros, or $840 million, to the monetary fund on Tuesday as scheduled. For the rest of the year, however, its debt repayments to the fund and the central bank total nearly €12 billion.
...
Discussions in the Greek government have included assessing the pros and cons of not paying the central bank and the monetary fund ... a few of the debt specialists ... contend that they have a strong intellectual case for defaulting on debt owed to the central bank and the monetary fund. For too long, they assert, Greece has been stuck in a cycle of having to borrow more money to pay off maturing debts. And each time it borrows more, it must accept economic austerity measures that deflate its economy.

A result, they argue, is that five years after Greece’s first bailout, the nation’s economy has contracted by a quarter, and its debt burden is approaching 200 percent of its gross domestic product.
Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, the Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI).

Weekend:
Schedule for Week of May 10, 2015

Lawler: Analyzing/Projecting Household Formations: It’s Not Just “Demographics”

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value).

Oil prices were mixeed over the last week with WTI futures at $59.30 per barrel and Brent at $65.41 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $100, and Brent was at $108 - so, even with the recent increases, prices are down 40%+ year-over-year.

Below is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are up to $2.67 per gallon (down about $1.00 per gallon from a year ago).

If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.



Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com