by Bill McBride on 5/29/2015 12:51:00 PM
Friday, May 29, 2015
From the Philly Fed:
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for April 2015. In the past month, the indexes increased in 40 states, decreased in six, and remained stable in four, for a one-month diffusion index of 68. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 45 states, decreased in three, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 84.Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:
The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.Click on graph for larger image.
This is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).
In April, 43 states had increasing activity (including minor increases).
It appears we are seeing weakness in several oil producing states including Alaska, North Dakota and Oklahoma. It wouldn't be surprising if Texas and other oil producing states also turned red sometime this year.
Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession, and is almost all green again.
Note: Blue added for Red/Green issues.
Posted by Bill McBride on 5/29/2015 12:51:00 PM