Thursday, May 07, 2015

Las Vegas Real Estate in April: Sales Increased 5.1% YoY

by Bill McBride on 5/07/2015 10:31:00 AM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities.

The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported GLVAR reports local housing market seeing steady growth this spring

According to GLVAR, the total number of existing local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in April was 3,379, up from 3,358 in March and up from 3,215 one year ago. Compared to the previous month, GLVAR reported that sales were up 1.7 percent for single-family homes, but down 3.8 percent for condos and townhomes. Compared to April 2014, 5.3 percent more homes and 4.3 percent more condos and townhomes sold this April.
...
GLVAR has been reporting fewer distressed sales and more traditional home sales, where lenders are not controlling the transaction. In April, 7.2 percent of all local sales were short sales – which occur when lenders allow borrowers to sell a home for less than what they owe on the mortgage. That’s down from 8.3 percent in March and from 12.4 percent one year ago. Another 8.3 percent of April sales were bank-owned, down from 9.3 percent in March and down from 11.4 percent last April.
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The total number of single-family homes listed for sale on GLVAR’s Multiple Listing Service in April was 13,750, up 1.6 percent from 13,532 in March, but down 0.6 percent from one year ago. GLVAR tracked a total of 3,626 condos, high-rise condos and townhomes listed for sale on its MLS in April, up 0.4 percent from 3,613 in March, but down 1.9 percent from one year ago.

By the end of April, GLVAR reported 7,296 single-family homes listed without any sort of offer. That’s up 0.5 percent from March and up 13.6 percent from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 2,437 properties listed without offers in April represented a 0.3 percent decrease from March and a 7.6 percent increase from one year ago.
emphasis added
There are several key trends that we've been following:

1) Overall sales were up 5.1% year-over-year.

2) Conventional(equity, not distressed) sales were up 16.5% year-over-year.  In April 2014, only 76.2% of all sales were conventional equity.  In April 2015, 84.5% were standard equity sales.   Note: In April 2013 (two years ago), only 57.5% were equity!  A significant change.

3) The percent of cash sales has declined year-over-year from 41.4% in April 2014 to 30.4% in April 2015. (investor buying appears to be declining).

4) Non-contingent inventory is up 7.6% year-over-year. The table below shows the year-over-year change for non-contingent inventory in Las Vegas. Inventory declined sharply through early 2013, and then inventory started increasing sharply year-over-year. It appears the inventory build is slowing  - but still ongoing.


Las Vegas: Year-over-year
Change in Non-contingent
Inventory
MonthYoY
Jan-13-58.3%
Feb-13-53.4%
Mar-13-42.1%
Apr-13-24.1%
May-13-13.2%
Jun-133.7%
Jul-139.0%
Aug-1341.1%
Sep-1360.5%
Oct-1373.4%
Nov-1377.4%
Dec-1378.6%
Jan-1496.2%
Feb-14107.3%
Mar-14127.9%
Apr-14103.1%
May-14100.6%
Jun-1486.2%
Jul-1455.2%
Aug-1438.8%
Sep-1429.5%
Oct-1425.6%
Nov-1420.0%
Dec-1418.0%
Jan-1512.9%
Feb-1515.8%
Mar-1512.2%
Apr-157.6%