Thursday, May 21, 2015

Existing Home Sales in April: 5.04 million SAAR, Inventory down 0.9% Year-over-year

by Bill McBride on 5/21/2015 10:10:00 AM

The NAR reports: Existing-Home Sales Lose Momentum in April

Total existing–home sales, which are completed transactions that include single–family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co–ops, declined 3.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million in April from an upwardly revised 5.21 million in March. Despite the monthly decline, sales have increased year–over–year for seven consecutive months and are still 6.1 percent above a year ago. ...

Total housing inventory at the end of April increased 10.0 percent to 2.21 million existing homes available for sale, but is still 0.9 percent below a year ago (2.23 million). Unsold inventory is at a 5.3–month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.6 months in March.
Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in April (5.04 million SAAR) were 3.3% lower than last month, and were 6.1% above the April 2014 rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home Inventory According to the NAR, inventory increased to 2.21 million in April from 2.01 million in March.   Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory decreased 0.9% year-over-year in April compared to April 2014.  

Months of supply was at 5.3 months in April.

This was below expectations of sales of 5.20 million.  For existing home sales, a key number is inventory - and inventory is still low.    I'll have more later ...