by Bill McBride on 5/14/2015 01:11:00 PM
Thursday, May 14, 2015
Here is a price index for commercial real estate that I follow.
From CoStar: Property Prices Surge Upward In the First Quarter Of 2015
OMPOSITE PRICE INDICES CONTINUED TO RISE IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2015. ... The value-weighted U.S. Composite Index, which is influenced by high-quality assets in core markets, advanced by 4.7% in the first quarter of 2015 and is now 11% above the previous peak in 2007. The equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index, which weighs each transaction equally and therefore reflects the impact from more numerous smaller deals, rose 4.8% in the first quarter of 2015, although it remains 10% below its previous peak level.Click on graph for larger image.
ALL MAJOR PROPERTY TYPE AND REGIONAL INDICES ADVANCED AT DOUBLE- DIGIT ANNUAL RATES THROUGH MARCH 2015. As the CRE recovery extended to more markets and property types, all major property types and regional sectors posted double-digit annual gains through March 2015. The Multifamily Index has already fully recovered, eclipsing its previous peak, while the Retail and Industrial Indices advanced to within 10% of their previous peak levels and the Office Index remained 15% below its previous high-water mark in 2007. Among CCRSI’s regional indices, strong investor demand in core coastal metros propelled the Northeast Composite Index 6.1% above its prior peak, while the West Composite Index moved to within 8.4% of its prior peak in March 2015.
This graph from CoStar shows the the value-weighted U.S. Composite Index and the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index indexes.
The value weighted index is at a record high, but the equal weighted is still 10.0% below the pre-recession peak.
There are indexes by sector and region too.
The second graph shows the percent of distressed "pairs".
The distressed share is down from over 35% at the peak, but still a little elevated.
Note: These are repeat sales indexes - like Case-Shiller for residential - but this is based on far fewer pairs.
Posted by Bill McBride on 5/14/2015 01:11:00 PM