by Bill McBride on 4/25/2015 01:15:00 PM
Saturday, April 25, 2015
The key report this is week is Q1 GDP on Wednesday. Also the FOMC will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday, and release a statement on Wednesday.
Other key reports include the March Personal Income and Outlays report on Thursday, April ISM manufacturing index on Friday, April vehicle sales on Friday, and the Case-Shiller house prices on Tuesday.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for April.
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for February. Although this is the February report, it is really a 3 month average of December, January and February prices.
This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the January 2015 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The consensus is for a 4.6% year-over-year increase in the National Index for February. The Zillow forecast is for the National Index to increase 4.5% year-over-year in February, and for prices to increase 0.5% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April.
10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for April. The consensus is for the index to increase to 102.5 from 101.3.
10:00 AM: Q1 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to report on the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, this report doesn't track with other measures (like the decennial Census and the ACS).
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2015 (advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 1.0% annualized in Q1.
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for March. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in the index.
2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Statement.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 290 thousand from 295 thousand.
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for March. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for April. The consensus is for a reading of 50.0, up from 46.3 in March.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for April. The consensus is for an increase to 52.0 from 51.5 in March.
Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.
The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 51.5% in March. The employment index was at 50.0%, and the new orders index was at 51.8%.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for March. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.
All day: Light vehicle sales for April. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 16.9 million SAAR in April from 17.05 million in March (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the March sales rate.
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for April). The consensus is for a reading of 96.0, up from the preliminary reading of 95.9, and up from the March reading of 93.0.