Monday, April 13, 2015

Q1 Report on Commercial Real Estate

by Bill McBride on 4/13/2015 11:59:00 AM

Some excerpts from a quarterly report from CBRE: U.S. Commercial Real Estate Sees Positive Start to 2015

The U.S. commercial real estate market showed continued strength across all property types in the first quarter of 2015 (Q1 2015), according to the latest analysis from CBRE Group, Inc.
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Office Market
Q1 2015 marked the 12th consecutive quarter of office vacancy rate declines. The trend remains broad-based across U.S. office markets. Vacancy fell in 41 of the 62 markets, rose in 18, and remained unchanged in three. Absorption of office space in the quarter was 9.5 million sq. ft. Suburban markets drove the overall improvement with a decline of 20 bps to 15.4%. Performance in downtown markets was mixed; vacancy increases in several large metros pushed the downtown rate up 10 bps during the quarter, to 11.2%.
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Industrial Market
The industrial real estate recovery has now continued for 19 quarters, the longest uninterrupted stretch of declining availability since CBRE began tracking industrial market activity in 1980. The start of 2015 saw the vast majority of markets continue to improve—41 reported declines in availability, while four remained unchanged and 12 recorded increases.
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Retail Market
Retail availability remained unchanged between Q4 2014 and Q1 2015. However, availability at year end 2014 was 50 bps below its year-earlier rate and is now 180 bps below the post-recession peak of 13.3%. 34 of the 62 markets tracked had availability decline in Q1 2015, while 28 recorded flat or increasing rates. Forty-three markets have improved upon their rates from one year ago.
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Apartment Market
Preliminary data shows that apartment demand continued to grow in Q1 2015, with the multifamily housing vacancy rate declining to 4.5%, a 40 bps drop from a year earlier. This represents a continuation of a persistent downward trend in national vacancy rates that began several years ago. The market is very tight and apartment demand remains strong as the vacancy rate pushes closer to its 20-year vacancy low of 3.7%.