Tuesday, April 07, 2015

Phoenix Real Estate in March: Sales Up 17.5%, Inventory DOWN 12% Year-over-year

by Bill McBride on 4/07/2015 06:51:00 PM

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes for Meeting of March 17-18, 2015
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On Phoenix: For the fourth consecutive month, inventory was down year-over-year in Phoenix. This is a significant change from last year.

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.  These key markets hopefully show us changes in trends for sales and inventory.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in March were up 17.5% year-over-year.  Another significant change.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 27.5% of total sales. Non-cash sales were up 27.3% year-over-year.

3) Active inventory is now down 11.7% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow.

Now, with falling inventory, prices might increase a little faster in 2015 (something to watch if inventory continues to decline).

March Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  SalesYoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
Mar-084,303---82219.1%57,0811---
Mar-097,63677.5%2,99439.2%49,743-12.9%
Mar-108,96917.5%3,74541.8%42,755-14.0%
Mar-119,92710.7%4,94649.8%37,632-12.0%
Mar-128,868-10.7%4,22247.6%21,863-41.9%
Mar-138,146-8.1%3,38441.5%20,729-5.2%
Mar-146,708-17.7%2,22233.1%30,16745.5%
Mar-157,88417.5%2,17227.5%26,623-11.7%
1 March 2008 probably included pending listings