Friday, April 17, 2015

Lawler: Texas Employment Declines (Housing Impact)

by Bill McBride on 4/17/2015 11:58:00 AM

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Texas: Non-Farm Payoll Employment Fell in March

The Texas Workforce Commission reported that non-farm payroll employment in the Lone Star State declined by 25,400 (or -0.22%) on a seasonally adjust basis in March, the first monthly decline since September 2009 and the largest monthly decline since August 2009. Declines were broad-based from an industry perspective, with mining and logging, construction, manufacturing, and the service-producing sectors all experiencing a monthly dip in employment.

From the end of 2013 to the end of 2014 non-farm payroll employment in Texas increased by 3.6%, easily outpacing the 2.3% growth for the US as a whole.

In 2014 single-family building permits in Texas were up 8.7% from 2013 compared to 1.5% for the US as a whole. In the first two months of 2015 single-family building permits in Texas were up 6.7% from the comparable period of 2014, compared to a YOY gain of 5.6% for the US as a whole.

CR note: As Lawler points out, single family building permits (and housing starts) have increased much faster in Texas than in the U.S. With the slowdown due to lower oil prices, employment is now falling, and building will probably slow.