Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in March

by Bill McBride on 4/14/2015 07:17:00 PM

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of 7.0, up from 6.9 last month (above zero is expansion).

• At 9:15 AM, the Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for March. The consensus is for a 0.3% decrease in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 78.7%.

• At 10:00 AM, the April NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 55, up from 53 last month. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the preliminary table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for a few selected cities in March.

On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in most of these markets mostly due to a decline in short sales (Mid-Atlantic is up year-over-year because of an increase foreclosure as lenders work through the backlog).

Short sales are down in these areas.

The All Cash Share (last two columns) is declining year-over-year. As investors pull back, the share of all cash buyers will probably continue to decline.

  Short Sales ShareForeclosure Sales Share Total "Distressed" ShareAll Cash Share
Mar-15Mar-14Mar-15Mar-14Mar-15Mar-14Mar-15Mar-14
Las Vegas8.3%12.9%9.3%11.7%17.6%24.6%32.4%43.1%
Reno**5.0%14.0%8.0%7.0%13.0%21.0%   
Phoenix          27.5%33.1%
Minneapolis2.9%4.9%12.2%21.9%15.1%26.8%   
Mid-Atlantic 4.7%7.7%14.0%10.9%18.8%18.5%18.2%19.9%
Tucson          32.0%33.5%
Chicago (city)      21.9%28.8%   
Northeast Florida      31.0%39.1%   
Hampton Roads      22.7%24.5%   
Toledo          32.7%40.7%
Des Moines          16.3%20.8%
Toledo          32.7%40.7%
Georgia***          23.2%33.8%
Tucson          32.0%33.5%
Richmond VA MSA  11.9%18.1%    18.0%21.1%
Memphis*    15.0%17.6%       
*share of existing home sales, based on property records
**Single Family Only
***GAMLS