by Bill McBride on 4/27/2015 06:21:00 PM
Monday, April 27, 2015
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in March to 1.73%, down from 1.81% in February. Freddie's rate is down from 2.20% in March 2014, and the rate in March was the lowest level since December 2008.
Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.
These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
Note: Fannie Mae will report their Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate for March in a few days.
Click on graph for larger image
Although the rate is declining, the "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%.
The serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.47 percentage points over the last year - and the rate of improvement has slowed recently - but at that rate of improvement, the serious delinquency rate will not be below 1% until late 2016.
So even though distressed sales are declining, I expect an above normal level of Fannie and Freddie distressed sales through 2016 (mostly in judicial foreclosure states).