by Bill McBride on 3/28/2015 01:41:00 PM
Saturday, March 28, 2015
The key report this week is the March employment report on Friday.
Other key indicators include the February Personal Income and Outlays report on Monday, March ISM manufacturing index also on Wednesday, March vehicle sales on Wednesday, and the February Trade Deficit on Thursday.
Also, Reis will release their quarterly surveys of rents and vacancy rates for offices, apartments and malls.
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for February. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for February. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in the index.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for March.
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for January. Although this is the January report, it is really a 3 month average of November, December and January prices.
This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the December 2014 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The consensus is for a 4.6% year-over-year increase in the National Index for January. The Zillow forecast is for the National Index to increase 4.6% year-over-year in January, and for prices to increase 0.5% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 50.2, up from 45.8 in February.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 225,000 payroll jobs added in March, up from 212,000 in February.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for a decrease to 52.5 from 52.9 in February.
Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.
The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in February at 52.9%. The employment index was at 51.4%, and the new orders index was at 52.5%.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending.
Early: Reis Q1 2015 Office Survey of rents and vacancy rates.
All day: Light vehicle sales for March. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 16.8 million SAAR in March from 16.2 million in February (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the February sales rate.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 285 thousand from 282 thousand.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through January. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $41.5 billion in February from $41.8 billion in January.
Early: Reis Q1 2015 Apartment Survey of rents and vacancy rates.
10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for February. The consensus is for no change in February orders.
8:30 AM: Employment Report for March. The consensus is for an increase of 247,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in March, down from the 295,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in February.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.5%.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.
In February, the year-over-year change was 3.3 million jobs. This was the highest year-over-year gain since the '90s.
As always, a key will be the change in real wages - and as the unemployment rate falls, wage growth should start to pickup.
Early: Reis Q1 2015 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates.