Sunday, March 01, 2015

Monday: Personal Income and Outlays, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending

by Bill McBride on 3/01/2015 08:48:00 PM

An excellent piece about the Fed from Tim Duy: Game On

Bottom Line: The Fed's confidence in the US economy is driving them closer to policy normalization. The labor market improvements are key - as long as unemployment is falling, confidence in the inflation outlook is rising. The more important message, however, is as the timing of the first rate hike draws closer, the level of uncertainty is rising. And it is not just about the timing of that rate hike. The Fed is sending a clear message that the subsequent path of rates is also very uncertain, and they don't think that uncertainty is being taken seriously by market participants. In their view, financial markets are too complacent about the likely path of interest rates.
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for January. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.1% decrease in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for a decrease to 53.0 from 53.5 in January. The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in January at 53.5%. The employment index was at 54.1%, and the new orders index was at 52.9%.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in construction spending.

Schedule for Week of March 1, 2015

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are up slightly and DOW futures are up 30 (fair value).

Oil prices were mixed over the last week with WTI futures at $49.40 per barrel and Brent at $62.19 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $103, and Brent was at $110 - so prices are down 52% and 43% respectively year-over-year.

Below is a graph from for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are up to $2.42 per gallon (down about $1.00 per gallon from a year ago).  If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by