by Bill McBride on 3/02/2015 03:13:00 PM
Monday, March 02, 2015
Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in January to 1.86% from 1.89% in December. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.33% in January 2014, and this is the lowest level since September 2008.
The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.
Last week, Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate was declined in January to 1.86%. Freddie's rate is down from 2.34% in January 2014, and is at the lowest level since December 2008. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.
Note: These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
Click on graph for larger image
The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.47 percentage points over the last year - the pace of improvement has slowed - and at that pace the serious delinquency rate will be under 1% in late 2016.
The "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%, so maybe serious delinquencies will be close to normal at the end of 2016. This elevated delinquency rate is mostly related to older loans - the lenders are still working through the backlog, especially in judicial foreclosure states like Florida.