Tuesday, March 03, 2015

CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.7% Year-over-year in January

by Bill McBride on 3/03/2015 10:05:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for January. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for December. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: Home Prices Up 5 Percent Year Over Year for December 2014

CoreLogic® ... today released its January 2015 CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) which shows that home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 5.7 percent in January 2015 compared to January 2014. This change represents 35 months of consecutive year-over-year increases in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased by 1.1 percent in January 2015 compared to December 2014.

Including distressed sales, 27 states and the District of Columbia are at or within 10 percent of their peak. Four states, New York (+5.6), Wyoming (+8.3 percent), Texas (+8.3 percent) and Colorado (+9.1 percent), reached new highs in the home price index since January 1976 when the index starts.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 5.6 percent in January 2015 compared to January 2014 and increased 1.4 percent month over month compared to December 2014. ...

We continue to see a strong and progressive uptick in home prices as we enter 2015. We project home prices will continue to rise throughout the year and into 2016,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “A dearth of supply in many parts of the country is a big factor driving up prices. Many homeowners have taken advantage of low rates to refinance their homes, and until we see sustained increases in income levels and employment they could be hunkered down so supplies may remain tight. Demand has picked up as low mortgage rates and the cut in the FHA annual insurance premium reduce monthly payments for prospective homebuyers.”
emphasis added
CoreLogic House Price Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was up 1.1% in January, and is up 5.7% over the last year.

This index is not seasonally adjusted, and this was a solid month-to-month increase.


CoreLogic YoY House Price IndexThe second graph is from CoreLogic. The year-over-year comparison has been positive for thirty five consecutive months suggesting house prices bottomed early in 2012 on a national basis (the bump in 2010 was related to the tax credit).

The YoY increase has mostly moved sideways over the last six months.