by Bill McBride on 2/15/2015 11:31:00 AM
Sunday, February 15, 2015
Way back in 2006 I disagreed with some analysts on the outlook for the Inland Empire in California. I wrote:
As the housing bubble unwinds, housing related employment will fall; and fall dramatically in areas like the Inland Empire. The more an area is dependent on housing, the larger the negative impact on the local economy will be.And sure enough, the economies of housing dependent areas like the Inland Empire were devastated during the housing bust. The good news is the Inland Empire is now recovering.
So I think some pundits have it backwards: Instead of a strong local economy keeping housing afloat, I think the bursting housing bubble will significantly impact housing dependent local economies.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the unemployment rate for the Inland Empire (using MSA: Riverside, San Bernardino, Ontario), and also the number of construction jobs as a percent of total employment.
The unemployment rate is falling, but still elevated at 7.2% (down from 15.0% in 2010). And construction employment is up only slightly from the lows (as a percent of total employment).
Overall the outlook for the Inland Empire is much better today.
Posted by Bill McBride on 2/15/2015 11:31:00 AM