Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Survey

by Bill McBride on 2/18/2015 08:02:00 PM

From DataQuick: Bay Area January Home Sales Slowest in Seven Years; Single-Digit Annual Price Gain

January home sales dropped sharply month over month, which is normal for the season, and dipped year over year to the lowest level for a January in seven years. ... A total of 4,439 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area in January 2015. That was down month over month by 40.5 percent from 7,456 sales in December 2014 and down year over year by 5.5 percent from 4,696 sales in January 2014, according to CoreLogic DataQuick data.
...
“January isn’t really a bellwether month when it comes to housing trends. For that we’ll have to wait until spring,” said Andrew LePage,” CoreLogic DataQuick data analyst. “But the latest data do indicate the market continues to struggle with challenges that many in the industry hoped would be resolved last year – challenges such as inactive groups of buyers and sellers and a mortgage market that remains difficult for many. More job and income growth, coupled with low mortgage rates, could fuel demand this year in a market still running short on supply and struggling with affordability constraints. It will be interesting to see whether recent home price appreciation will trigger a more pronounced ‘supply response’ – an increase in the number of homes listed for sale.”
...
Foreclosure resales accounted for 4.5 percent of all resales in January, up from a revised 3.6 percent in December 2014 and down from 5.2 percent in January 2014. Foreclosure resales in the Bay Area peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009, while the monthly average over the past 17 years is about 10 percent. Foreclosure resales are purchased homes that have been previously foreclosed upon in the prior 12 months.

Short sales made up an estimated 4.0 percent of Bay Area resales in January, the same as in December 2014 and down from 8.5 percent in January 2014. Short sales are transactions in which the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property.
emphasis added
Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 290 thousand from 304 thousand.

• At 10:00 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a reading of 8.5, up from 6.3 last month (above zero indicates expansion).