Thursday, February 12, 2015

Retail Sales decreased 0.8% in January

by Bill McBride on 2/12/2015 08:40:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.8% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.3% from January 2014. Sales in December were unrevised at a 0.9% decrease.

From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $439.8 billion, a decrease of 0.8 percent from the previous month, but up 3.3 percent above January 2014. ... The November to December 2014 percent change was unrevised from -0.9 percent.
Retail Sales Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased slightly.

Retail sales ex-autos decreased 0.9%. 

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Year-over-year change in Retail Sales Retail and Food service sales ex-gasoline increased by 6.9% on a YoY basis (3.3% for all retail sales).

The decrease in January was below consensus expectations of a 0.5% decrease.  Sales for both November and December were revised up slightly.

Although weaker than expected, after removing the impact of lower gasoline prices, this was an OK report.