Tuesday, February 10, 2015

Las Vegas Real Estate in January: Sales Decline, Non-contingent Inventory up 13% YoY

by Bill McBride on 2/10/2015 02:24:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities.

The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported GLVAR reports local home prices up 8 percent for year

According to GLVAR, the total number of existing local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in January 2015 was 2,239, down from 2,734 in December 2014 and down from 2,565 one year ago. At the current sales pace, Lynam said Southern Nevada continues to have roughly a four-month supply of available homes. REALTORS® consider a six-month supply to be a balanced market.
...
GLVAR has been tracking a two-year trend of fewer distressed sales and more traditional home sales, where lenders are not controlling the transaction. In January, 9.7 percent of all local sales were short sales – which occur when lenders allow borrowers to sell a home for less than what they owe on the mortgage. That’s down from 10 percent in December and 17 percent a year ago. Another 9.4 percent of January sales were bank-owned, up from 8 percent in December, but down from 11 percent last year.
...
The total number of single-family homes listed for sale on GLVAR’s Multiple Listing Service in January was 12,666, up 2.3 percent from 12,377 in December, but down 6.4 percent from one year ago. GLVAR tracked a total of 3,429 condos, high-rise condos and townhomes listed for sale on its MLS in January, up 4.5 percent from 3,282 in December and up 15.1 percent from January 2014.

By the end of January, GLVAR reported 7,382 single-family homes listed without any sort of offer. That’s down 5.0 percent from 7,774 such homes listed in December, but up 12.9 percent from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 2,327 properties listed without offers in January represented a 0.8 percent increase from 2,309 such properties listed in December and a 35.9 percent increase from one year ago.
emphasis added
There are several key trends that we've been following:

1) Overall sales were down 12.7% year-over-year.

2) However conventional (equity, not distressed) sales were only down about 2% year-over-year.  In January 2014, only 72.0% of all sales were conventional equity.  In January 2015, 80.9% were standard equity sales.   Note: In January 2013 (two years ago), only 51.3% were equity!  A significant change.

3) The percent of cash sales has declined year-over-year from 46.8% in January 2014 to 36.0% in January 2015. (investor buying appears to be declining).

4) Non-contingent inventory is up 12.9% year-over-year. The table below shows the year-over-year change for non-contingent inventory in Las Vegas. Inventory declined sharply through early 2013, and then inventory started increasing sharply year-over-year. It appears the inventory build is slowing (an important change in many areas).


Las Vegas: Year-over-year
Change in Non-contingent
Inventory
MonthYoY
Jan-13-58.3%
Feb-13-53.4%
Mar-13-42.1%
Apr-13-24.1%
May-13-13.2%
Jun-133.7%
Jul-139.0%
Aug-1341.1%
Sep-1360.5%
Oct-1373.4%
Nov-1377.4%
Dec-1378.6%
Jan-1496.2%
Feb-14107.3%
Mar-14127.9%
Apr-14103.1%
May-14100.6%
Jun-1486.2%
Jul-1455.2%
Aug-1438.8%
Sep-1429.5%
Oct-1425.6%
Nov-1420.0%
Dec-1418.0%
Jan-1512.9%