Thursday, January 22, 2015

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 307,000

by Bill McBride on 1/22/2015 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending January 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 307,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 316,000 to 317,000. The 4-week moving average was 306,500, an increase of 6,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 2,000 from 298,000 to 300,000.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.
The previous week was revised up to 317,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 306,500.

This was higher than the consensus forecast of 300,000, and the 4-week average has moved up lately, but the low level still suggests few layoffs.  Note: We might start seeing an increase in unemployment claims due to layoffs in oil producing states.