Monday, January 26, 2015

Vehicle Sales Forecasts: "Best January in 8 Years"

by Bill McBride on 1/26/2015 12:57:00 PM

The automakers will report January vehicle sales on February 3rd. Sales in December were at 16.8 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in January will be lower - but will probably be the best January in eight years.

Note:  There were 26 selling days in January this year compared to 25 last year.

Here are two forecasts:

From WardsAuto: Forecast: U.S. Automakers to Record Best January in Eight Years

A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. automakers to deliver 1.13 million light vehicles in January, marking the industry’s best kickoff since January 2006. ... the report puts the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales for the month at 16.4 million units, compared with a year-ago SAAR of 15.2 million and December’s 16.8 million mark.
And from TrueCar: TrueCar forecasts strong start for 2015 auto sales with 13.2% volume gain and 16.6 Million SAAR in January
TrueCar, Inc. ... forecasts the pace of auto sales in January expanded to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 16.6 million new units on continued consumer demand.

New light vehicle sales, including fleet, should reach 1,446,600 units for the month, up 13.2 percent over a year ago. On a daily selling rate (DSR) basis, adjusting for one additional selling day this January versus a year ago, deliveries will likely rise 8.9 percent.
Another strong month for auto sales.