Saturday, January 03, 2015

Schedule for Week of January 4, 2015

by Bill McBride on 1/03/2015 11:29:00 AM

The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday.

Other key reports include December vehicle sales on Monday, the December ISM non-manufacturing index on Tuesday, and the November Trade Deficit on Wednesday.

Also, Reis will release their quarterly surveys of rents and vacancy rates for offices, apartments and malls.

----- Monday, January 5th -----

Early: Reis Q4 2014 Office Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for December. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 16.9 million SAAR in December from 17.1 million in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the November sales rate.

----- Tuesday, January 6th -----

Early: Reis Q4 2014 Apartment Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for November. The consensus is for a 0.2 decrease in November orders.

10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is for a reading of 58.2, down from 59.3 in November. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion.

----- Wednesday, January 7th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 223,000 payroll jobs added in December, up from 207,000 in November.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through October. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $42.0 billion in November from $43.4 billion in October.

Early: Reis Q4 2014 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes for Meeting of December 16-17, 2014

----- Thursday, January 8th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 300 thousand from 298 thousand.

Early: Trulia Price Rent Monitors for December. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for November from the Federal Reserve.  The consensus is for credit to increase $15.0 billion.

----- Friday, January 9th -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for December. The consensus is for an increase of 240,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in December, down from the 321,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in November.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decline to 5.7% in December from 5.8% the previous month.

Year-over-year change employmentThis graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In November, the year-over-year change was 2.73 million jobs, and that should increase further in December.  Barring a huge downside surprise in the December report, 2014 will be the best year since the '90s for both total nonfarm and private sector employment growth.

As always, a key will be the change in real wages - and as the unemployment rate falls, wage growth should eventually start to pickup.

10:00 AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for November. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in inventories.