by Bill McBride on 1/29/2015 11:58:00 AM
Thursday, January 29, 2015
From the Philly Fed:
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for December 2014. In the past month, the indexes increased in 46 states and remained stable in four, for a one-month diffusion index of 94. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 50 states, for a three-month diffusion index of 100.Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:
The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.Click on graph for larger image.
This is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).
In December, 49 states had increasing activity (including minor increases). This measure has been moving up and down, and is in the normal range for a recovery.
Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession, and is all green again.
It seems likely that several oil producing states will turn red sometime in 2015 - possibly Texas, North Dakota, Alaska or Oklahoma.
Posted by Bill McBride on 1/29/2015 11:58:00 AM