Thursday, January 15, 2015

Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey declines to 6.3 in January

by Bill McBride on 1/15/2015 10:10:00 AM

From the Philly Fed: January Manufacturing Survey

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased 18 points, from a revised reading of 24.3 in December to 6.3 this month.
...
The current employment index fell 10 points, from 8.4 to -2.0. ...

The diffusion index for future activity edged up by less than 1 point, to 50.9, in January and has remained near its current level over the past five months ...
emphasis added
This was below the consensus forecast of a reading of 18.8 for January.

Earlier today from the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey
The headline general business conditions index climbed eleven points to 10.0.
...
Labor market conditions were mixed, with the index for number of employees rising several points to 13.7, while the average workweek index remained negative at -8.4.
...
Indexes assessing the six-month outlook conveyed considerable optimism about future business activity. The index for future general business conditions rose nine points to 48.4, with nearly 60 percent of respondents expecting conditions to improve.
The NY Fed survey was above the consensus forecast of 5.0

ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The yellow line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through January. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through December.

The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys declined in January, but this still suggests a decent ISM report for January.