Tuesday, January 20, 2015

NAHB: Builder Confidence decreased to 57 in January

by Bill McBride on 1/20/2015 10:00:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 57 in January, down from an upwardly revised 58 in December (revised up from 57). Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From Reuters: U.S. homebuilder sentiment edges lower in January -NAHB

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index fell to 57 from a revised 58 in December, the group said in a statement. ... The index has not been below 50 since June 2014.

"After seven months above the key 50 benchmark, builder sentiment is reflecting the gradual improvement that is occurring in many markets throughout the nation," said NAHB Chairman Kevin Kelly, a home builder and developer from Wilmington, Del.

The single-family home sales component was flat at 62. The gauge of single-family sales expectations for the next six months fell to 60 from 64, while the index of prospective buyer traffic fell to 44 from 46.
emphasis added
HMI and Starts Correlation Click on graph for larger image.

This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was below the consensus forecast of 58.