by Bill McBride on 1/12/2015 08:11:00 AM
Monday, January 12, 2015
Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for November today. According to BKFS, 6.08% of mortgages were delinquent in November, up from 5.44% in October. BKFS reported that 1.63% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 2.50% in November 2013.
This gives a total of 7.71% delinquent or in foreclosure. It breaks down as:
• 1,925,000 properties that are 30 or more days, and less than 90 days past due, but not in foreclosure.
• 1,163,000 properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure.
• 829,000 loans in foreclosure process.
For a total of 3,917,000 loans delinquent or in foreclosure in November. This is down from 4,497,000 in November 2013.
Black Knight had several comments on the "spike" in delinquencies in November:
• November’s spike in delinquencies was the largest month-over month increase (for any month) since November 2008If this was just seasonal (and calendar related), then delinquencies should decline solidly in December.
• Much of the increase seems to have been calendar-driven; two federal holidays (Veterans Day and Thanksgiving) and the last two days of the month being a weekend resulted in just 18 possible payment processing days
• The five largest M/M delinquency rate increases over the last 7 years have all occurred in months ending on a Sunday
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph from Black Knight shows the number of loans rolling to a more delinquent status. There was a big spike from current to 30 days delinquent, and that should reverse if seasonal.
From Black Knight:
• Increased roll-rates were seen across all early stage delinquency categories (i.e., loans rolling from current status to 30-days delinquent, 30 to 60 days delinquent, etc.)There is much more in the mortgage monitor.
• November saw the highest one month count of loans rolling from current to 30-days delinquent since June 2013
• While early stage delinquent categories saw increased roll-rates, rolls from delinquent to foreclosure status were still down