Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Vehicle Sales Forecasts: "Strongest December in 10 Years", 17 Million in 2015

by Bill McBride on 12/24/2014 10:52:00 AM

The automakers will report December vehicle sales on Monday, Jan 5th. Sales in November were at 17.1 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in December might be close to 17 million SAAR again.

Note:  There were 26 selling days in December this year compared to 25 last year.

Here are a few forecasts:

From WardsAuto: Forecast: December Sales Set to Reach 10-Year High

A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. automakers to sell 1.51 million light vehicles in December, which would be the second-highest December sales tally since at least 1980, just behind December 2004’s 1.53 million. ... The forecast puts the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales at 16.95 million-units, within a hair of breaking the 17 million mark for two consecutive months for the first time since June and July 2005.
From J.D. Power: Vehicle Sales Forecast Increases for 2014 and 2015; December Retail SAAR Highest Since 2006
Total light-vehicle sales in December 2014 are expected to reach 1.5 million units, a 6 percent increase, compared with December 2013. [Total forecast 16.7 million SAAR]
...
For 2015, LMC Automotive has raised its forecast to 17.4 million units from 17.2 million, which is a 3 percent growth from 2014.
From Kelley Blue Book: New-Vehicle Sales To Jump Nearly 10 Percent In Best December Since 2004; Kelley Blue Book Forecasts 16.9 Million SAAR In 2015
In December, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,490,000 units, up 9.8 percent from December 2013 and up 14.7 percent from November 2014. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for December 2014 is estimated to be 16.7 million, up from 15.4 million in December 2013 and down from 17.1 million in November 2014.
And on 2015 from TrueCar: TrueCar projects 2015 U.S. new auto sales to reach decade-high 17 million, set all-time record revenue of $553 billion
TrueCar, Inc. ... expects a healthy U.S. auto industry in 2015 with sales of new cars and trucks rising at least 2.6 percent to 17 million units, the highest level since 2005.
Another strong month for auto sales.