Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Q3 Flow of Funds

by Bill McBride on 12/10/2014 07:24:00 PM

Big stories today: Falling oil prices, possible budget deal, and Q3 GDP likely to be revised up.

On oil prices, from the WSJ: Oil Prices Tumble Amid Global Supply Glut

The benchmark U.S. oil price slid 4.5% to $60.94 a barrel, the lowest level since July 2009 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the biggest one-day drop since Nov. 28, the session that followed OPEC’s decision to maintain its oil-output target.

Brent crude, a gauge of global prices, fell 3.9%, or $2.60, to $64.24 a barrel, also the lowest since July 2009 on ICE Futures Europe.
On the budget, from Peter Orzag at Bloomberg: Don't Get Too Excited About the Budget Deal
Thanks to the spending bill that House and Senate leaders have negotiated, the federal government will avoid a shutdown. And that's great. Unfortunately, though, that’s the highest praise that can be attached to the deal.
It seems likely there won't be a shutdown. But that is a concern for 2015.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 296 thousand from 297 thousand.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for November will be released. The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.4% in November, and to increase 0.1% ex-autos.

• At 10:00 AM, Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for September. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in inventories.

• At 12:00 PM, Q3 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.