Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Question #1 for 2015: How much will the economy grow in 2015?

by Bill McBride on 12/31/2014 07:22:00 PM

Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2015. I'm adding some thoughts, and a few predictions for each question. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2014.

1) Economic growth: Heading into 2015, most analysts are pretty sanguine. Even with contraction in the first quarter, 2014 was a decent year (GDP will grow around 2.4% in 2014). Will 2015 be the best year of the recovery so far? Could 2015 be the best year since the '90s? Or will 2015 disappoint again?

First, here is a table of the annual change in real GDP since 1999.  Since 2000, the fastest real GDP growth was 3.8% in 2004, and the fastest growth for the recovery was 2.5% in 2010.

Economic activity clearly picked up in 2014 after the first quarter, however - due to severe weather - the economy contracted in Q1 and the economy only grew around 2.4% for the year (estimated).

Perhaps 2015 will be the year with 3%+ growth!

Annual Real GDP Growth
YearGDP
19994.7%
20004.1%
20011.0%
20021.8%
20032.8%
20043.8%
20053.3%
20062.7%
20071.8%
2008-0.3%
2009-2.8%
20102.5%
20111.6%
20122.3%
20132.2%
201412.4%
1 2014 estimate.

All of the positives that led to the pickup in activity in 2014 are still present - the housing recovery is ongoing, state and local government austerity is over, household balance sheets are in much better shape and household deleveraging is over, and commercial real estate (CRE) investment (ex-energy) and public construction will both probably make positive contributions in 2015.

In addition, the sharp decline in oil prices should be a net positive for the US economy in 2015.  Plus the Federal government austerity is now ending (although there is the risk of more cuts).

A possible negative would be less exports due to the strong dollar.

Lower gasoline prices suggest an increase in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) excluding gasoline. And it seems likely PCE growth will be above 3% in 2015.  Add in some more business investment, the ongoing housing recovery, some further increase in state and local government spending, and 2015 should be the best year of the recovery with GDP growth at or above 3%.

Here are the ten questions for 2015 and a few predictions:
Question #2 for 2015: How many payroll jobs will be added in 2015?
Question #3 for 2015: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2015?
Question #4 for 2015: Will too much inflation be a concern in 2015?
Question #5 for 2015: Will the Fed raise rates in 2015? If so, when?
Question #6 for 2015: Will real wages increase in 2015?
Question #7 for 2015: What about oil prices in 2015?
Question #8 for 2015: How much will Residential Investment increase?
Question #9 for 2015: What will happen with house prices in 2015?
Question #10 for 2015: How much will housing inventory increase in 2015?