Monday, December 22, 2014

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 44 states in November

by Bill McBride on 12/22/2014 03:41:00 PM

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for November 2014. In the past month, the indexes increased in 44 states, decreased in two, and remained stable in four, for a one-month diffusion index of 84. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 48 states and decreased in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 92.
Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:
The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.
Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityClick on graph for larger image.

This is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In November, 47 states had increasing activity (including minor increases). This measure declined sharply during the winter, but is close to normal for a recovery.


Philly Fed State Conincident Map Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession, and is mostly green again.  In will be interesting to see if several oil producing states - such as Texas, North Dakota, Alaska and Oklahoma - turn read in 2015.