Thursday, December 18, 2014

Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey declines to 24.5 in December

by Bill McBride on 12/18/2014 10:00:00 AM

From the Philly Fed: December Manufacturing Survey

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased 16 points, from a reading of 40.8 in November to 24.5 this month ... The new orders [to 19.7] and current shipments indexes also weakened significantly.
...
The current employment index fell 15 points [to 9.7] ...

The diffusion index for future activity edged down 6 points, to 51.9, in December ...
emphasis added
This was at the consensus forecast of a reading of 25.0 for December.  Note: These declines were from the extremely high readings in November - usually a reading of 24.5 would be considered robust (above zero indicates expansion).

ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The dashed green line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through December. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through November.

The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys declined in December (the Empire State was negative), but this still suggests another decent ISM report for December.