Friday, December 19, 2014

Lawler Update: Read on November Existing Home Sales, Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities

by Bill McBride on 12/19/2014 02:54:00 PM

CR Note: The consensus is that on Monday, the NAR will report 5.20 million existing home sales for November, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Housing economist Tom Lawler isn't always correct, but usually he is much closer than the consensus - so I expect a consensus miss on Monday.

From Tom Lawler: "Based on local realtor/MLS reports released through this morning, I estimate that existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.90 million in November, down 6.8% from October’s pace and up 1.4% from last November’s pace. Unadjusted sales last month should be down slightly from a year ago."

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the updated table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for a selected cities in November.

On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in these markets mostly due to a decline in short sales (the Mid-Atlantic and Orlando were unchanged).

Short sales are down significantly in these areas.

Foreclosures are up in several areas (working through the logjam).

The All Cash Share (last two columns) is declining year-over-year. As investors pull back, the share of all cash buyers will probably continue to decline.

  Short Sales ShareForeclosure Sales Share Total "Distressed" ShareAll Cash Share
Nov-14Nov-13Nov-14Nov-13Nov-14Nov-13Nov-14Nov-13
Las Vegas9.5%21.0%8.7%7.0%18.2%28.0%32.8%43.7%
Reno**6.0%17.0%6.0%6.0%12.0%23.0%   
Phoenix4.1%7.8%5.7%8.0%9.7%15.8%28.0%34.0%
Sacramento6.1%11.0%5.4%4.6%11.5%15.6%16.9%25.0%
Minneapolis3.1%5.0%10.2%16.9%13.4%21.9%   
Mid-Atlantic 4.7%7.5%11.0%8.1%15.7%15.7%19.1%19.6%
Orlando6.2%13.7%27.8%20.3%34.0%34.0%42.1%46.2%
California *6.2%10.2%5.8%6.8%12.0%17.0%   
Bay Area CA*4.3%7.2%2.8%3.7%7.1%10.9%18.9%22.4%
So. California*6.2%10.5%5.3%6.3%11.5%16.8%23.9%28.1%
Miami MSA SF8.9%15.0%20.8%15.8%29.7%30.8%41.9%45.5%
Miami MSA C/TH5.0%9.2%22.4%18.3%27.4%27.5%67.8%74.6%
Chicago (City)        20.2%32.8%   
Hampton Roads        20.4%26.9%   
Northeast Florida        29.7%38.1%   
Tucson            26.3%32.2%
Toledo            35.4%37.2%
Wichita            26.6%26.5%
Des Moines            19.3%19.9%
Peoria            19.7%21.8%
Georgia***            26.5%N/A
Omaha            21.1%21.6%
Pensacola               
Knoxville               
Memphis*    15.1%20.5%       
Birmingham AL    14.9%21.0%       
Springfield IL**    11.8%17.6%       
*share of existing home sales, based on property records
**Single Family Only
***GAMLS