Tuesday, December 09, 2014

Las Vegas Real Estate in November: YoY Non-contingent Inventory up 20%, Distressed Sales and Cash Buying down YoY

by Bill McBride on 12/09/2014 03:31:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities.

The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported GLVAR reports local home prices bounce back, while housing sales and supply slip

According to GLVAR, the total number of existing local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in November was 2,483, down from 2,861 in October and down from 2,694 one year ago. At the current pace, [GLVAR President Heidi] Kasama said Southern Nevada has about a four-month supply of available properties. REALTORS® consider a six-month supply to be a balanced market.
...
GLVAR said 31.9 percent of all local properties sold in November were purchased with cash. That’s down from 35.1 percent in October and well short of the February 2013 peak of 59.5 percent, suggesting that fewer investors have been buying homes in Southern Nevada.
...
For roughly two years, GLVAR has reported fewer distressed sales and more traditional home sales, where lenders are not controlling the transaction. That trend continued in November, when 9.6 percent of all local sales were short sales – which occur when lenders allow borrowers to sell a home for less than what they owe on the mortgage. That’s down from 10.6 percent in October. Another 8.7 percent of all November sales were bank-owned properties, down from 8.9 percent in October.
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The total number of single-family homes listed for sale on GLVAR’s Multiple Listing Service in November was 13,421, down 7.0 percent from 14,430 in October and down 5.8 percent from one year ago. GLVAR tracked a total of 3,529 condos and townhomes listed for sale on its MLS in November, down 3.4 percent from 3,653 in October and down 2.6 percent from November 2013.

By the end of November, GLVAR reported 8,195 single-family homes listed without any sort of offer. That’s down 7.7 percent from 8,880 such homes listed in October, but up 20.0 percent from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 2,458 properties listed without offers in November represented a 3.5 percent decrease from 2,548 such properties listed in October, but a 12.1 percent increase from one year ago.
emphasis added
There are several key trends that we've been following:

1) Overall sales were down 7.8% year-over-year.

2) However conventional (equity, not distressed) sales were up about 5% year-over-year.  In November 2013, only 72.0% of all sales were conventional equity.  This year, in November 2014, 81.7% were equity sales.   Note: In November 2012, only 48.1% were equity!

3) The percent of cash sales has declined year-over-year from 43.7% in November 2013 to 31.9% in November 2014. (investor buying appears to be declining).

4) Non-contingent inventory is up 20.0% year-over-year. The table below shows the year-over-year change for non-contingent inventory in Las Vegas. Inventory declined sharply through early 2013, and then inventory started increasing sharply year-over-year. It appears the inventory build is slowing (an important change in many areas).


Las Vegas: Year-over-year
Change in Non-contingent
Inventory
MonthYoY
Jan-13-58.3%
Feb-13-53.4%
Mar-13-42.1%
Apr-13-24.1%
May-13-13.2%
Jun-133.7%
Jul-139.0%
Aug-1341.1%
Sep-1360.5%
Oct-1373.4%
Nov-1377.4%
Dec-1378.6%
Jan-1496.2%
Feb-14107.3%
Mar-14127.9%
Apr-14103.1%
May-14100.6%
Jun-1486.2%
Jul-1455.2%
Aug-1438.8%
Sep-1429.5%
Oct-1425.6%
Nov-1420.0%